ANALYSIS OF THE OUTBURTS AND THE LIGHT VISUAL-CCD CURVE OF COMET C/2013 X1 PANSTARRS

My last and personal analysis of the light visual curve ccd+visual , show the data of recent outburts confirmed for multiples observers , the first notice of alert is one message of Stephen McCann UK in the yahoogroups.com comets-ml the 3.87/Jan./2016, the observer alert increment brightness of m1=+8.5 , the last visuals magnitudes from the data indicate range of visual's magnitudes of 9.5 < m1 < 10.5 , the visuals magnitudes : 8.0 , 8.8 , 8.5 and the last recent 7.9 ( Neil Norman , UK ) in the 3 , 4 and 5 January 2016 . The photometric law visual indicate visual magnitude max. of m1~ +5.0 in 20/06/2016 , based in formula m1 = +2.2 + 5 log (d) + 18.2 log (r) , the power law is high n=7.3 , based in R^ (-7.3) .

C/2013 US10 CATALINA FINSON-PROBSTEIN DIAGRAM

The motion of dust particles in a cometary environment is a complex process, and a precise description of the trajectories of grains within the coma requires adavnced hydrodynamic models, taking into account the interaction between gas and dust released from the surface. In the tail, dust and gas are decoupled and the only significant forces affecting the grain trajectories are the solar gravity and radiation pressure. Both forces depend on the square of the heliocentric distance but work in opposite directions. Their sum can be seen as a reduced solar gravity, and the equation of motion is simply m*a=(1-beta)*solar_gravity, where beta is the ratio radiation_pressure/solar_gravity, and is inversely proportional to the size of the grains for particles larger than 1 micron. From this relation, Finson & Probstein (1968) proposed a model which describes the full tail geometry with a grid of synchrones and syndynes; lines representing respectively the locations of particles released at a same time, or with the same beta. This model is simple because it considers only particles released in the orbital plane of the comet, and with zero initial velocity, but it provides a very good approximation of the shape of the tail, and has been used successfully to study many comets. One of the many strengths of this model is the possibility to date events in the tail. For instance, one can understand if regions of higher density are related to outbursts of the nucleus, or are a result of fragmentation of large chunks of material within the trail. It can also be used to disentangle between continuous activity, short outbursts, or impacts, when all these events produce a feature which at first look like a normal cometary tail.

ANALYSIS OF THE LIGHT VISUAL AND CCD CURVE OF COMET C/2013 US10 CATALINA

Hi all , based in the analysis of the light visual and ccd curve of comet C/2013 US10 CATALINA and recopilation from database MPC /IAU and list of comet obs and observadorescometas yahoogroups.com of 1.210 observations , i analyzed the graphic and data and obtained than the probability of visual maximum magnitude for this comet is m1(max)~ 6.0 for 2016 , my differential analysis of the light curve based on a sum of observations CCDs and other visual and visual only gives the result for only next formula : m1=5.4+5log(d)+7.8log(r) and the poor activity index n=3.1 this result indicate than brightness of comet is a comet that behaves solid object type asteroid in actually heliocentric distance R=1.00 au , this is very typical of the new comets Oort Cloud (e= 1.000322) when they exceed the heliocentric distance of r = 1.5 au brightness stagnation and stifling dust activity and especially the gas is produced, in my opinion this activity remains off and could be reactivated in February 2016. ** Updated ( 25/10/2015 ) 1 .-The new calculations of J.P.Navarro based in the reference of A.Sosa and J.A. Fdez. from ''Masses of long period comets'' ( 2011 ) , show new physical parameters of comet C/2013 US10 CATALINA : The Log10 ( water production rate ) maximum based in correlation between visual total heliocentric magnitudes for US10 CATALINA show 10^29,5 MOLEC/S ( ~ 3.000 kg / sec )in R = 1.0 au . 2.-The Fraction active surface area calculated by Navarro Pina is FASA=2.4 , for comparison the comet C/2004 Q2 is FASA=2.4 , C/2007 W1 FASA=2.3 , this indicate high rate of fraction surface area for US10 CATALINA , by example the 1P/Halley FASA=0.2 . 3.-The Mass estimated is Log10 M (kg) =13.00 based in absolute magnitude for total visuals observations m0=5.4 , 10^12 kg . 4.-The Diameter calculated is log10(D)=0.6 kms. , based in the formula log10 D (km)=1.5-0.13*m0 ( Sosa & Fdez 2011 )

UPDATE LIGHT VISUAL AND CC CURVE OF COMET C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY

Bright Spots in Dawn Ceres Images : Analysis

My analysis of the surface makes me think that this is an impact of comet fragment left in its surface water ice in several concentric layers due to the strong impact caused.

Image processed of nucleus of surface of comet 67P/CHURYUMOV-GERASIMENKO

I just process the image of the surface of the nucleus of Comet 67P / Churyumov-Gerasimenko, ESA has placed at last an open kernel image file, I used to make one of them, very curious, because it shows an image of a plume important ice is highly reflective, the projected shadow can give an idea of how high is, likewise in the area of volatile ice deposits on the surface are, I hope you like it.

Analysis of the reduced light curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY , Water rate production , Fraction active surface , Masses estimated .

I estimate the masse for a comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY , the diameter of the nucleus , maximun water rate production in the perihelion , and active surface fraction , this calculations is based in 3.200 observations from database MPC/IAU , and personal elaborating light visual and ccd curve of comet along time of near 1 year of work , the down graphic is reduced for geocentric distance in y axis , and x axis the heliocentric distance in au , this work is new analysis for comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY and contain great quantity of observations . The introduction physical's parameters of Mn ( masse) , log Q(H2O) , f , and D , the results , is Max log Q(H2O) = 10e 28.58 mol s-1 ( 1000 kg/sec. ) , log 10 Mn ( kg) = 11.6 , D = 1.0 km , f = 2.3 . Link of download in pdf : https://www.facebook.com/download/371419113055823/~WRD0004%20Copy.pdf

HISTORIC ANALYSIS OF THE LIGHT VISUAL AND CCD CURVE OF COMET 29P/SW-1 1932-2015

Probability new discovery of Comet 29P / SW-1, based on a comprehensive analysis of 5,169 visual observations, and ccd Comet 29P / SW-1, in the period 1932-2015, the photometric analysis of the light curve by Pina JPNavarro shown in the 29P / SW-1 comet an average drop in outburts or explosions brightness a 2.0 magnitude in the last 20 years observed, from 1995-2015, the most likely hypothesis is that this comet exhibits a wear materials + CO gas and dust core level important.

UPDATE LIGHT VISUAL AND CCD CURVE OF COMET C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY ( analysis VI )

Hi all , updated the light visual and ccd curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY , have been collected analyzed and graphed after 10 months of hard work rewarded after the publication of my analysis in the American magazine Sky and Telescope and hitting the forecast of maximum brightness for this comet after reaching visual magnitude +4 was the first analyst curves global warning light turn on the brightness of the comet, my upgrade is the largest and most comprehensive global visual light curve of this comet with 3,083 observations of all the observatories and observers of comets . Reduced light visual-ccd curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY , mred= m1-5 log (d) vs log R , the analysis show why the comet is more brightness in post-perihelion .

ASTEROID-COMET P/2014 S4 GIBBS BY HST

Image of asteroid-comet P/2014 S4 GIBBS by HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE , processed by J.P.Navarro Pina , the central condensation is typycal of asteroid image and show the large and fine rectilineal dust tail .

Update light visual curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY ( Analysis V )

Hi , recent update the light visual and ccd curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY , the comet continue the increase of brightness , my last anaysis indicate variation of activity index of d(n)= -0.5 , the rate of increment continue high for this comet , n=9.7 , the power law is R^-9 , the normal power law is R^-4 , the formula general analyzed by Navarro Pina is m1= 2.9 + 5 log (delta) + 24.4 log (R) , the ICQ / MPC formula is m1= 4.0 + 5 log (delta) + 21.0 log (R) , the light curve is based in 828 from MPC/IAU , Comet Obs , Comet base , COBS , LIADA and observadorescometas original sources . * Preliminar results of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY * Calculated Mass , Diameter , Water rate production , and Fraction of active surface Area ( FASA ) Based in the work of Masses of long period comets ( A. Sosa , J.Fdez. 2011 ) , Analysis by J.P.Navarro Pina. * Water rate production log10 Q ( H2O ) = 10^-29.38 mol s-1 > 3.500 kgs /sec ( 3.5 tons / sec. ) Diameter ( km) * log10 D ( kms ) = 1.123 * log 10 M ( kgs ) = 13.96 For comparison : C/2004 Q2 .... log10 M ( kg ) = 13.0 C/2002 V1 NEAT .....log10 M ( kg) = 12.8 * Fraction of Active Surface Area = 3.1 For comparison : C/2004 Q2 , C/2007 W1 ..... FASA = 2.5 ** Note : These results are based on theoretical models and should be taken with caution .