update light visual curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY ( Analysis IV )

Update 27/12/2014 Analysis of the light visual and ccd curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY based in 567 observations from COBS , comet obs , LIADA , observadorescometas .

NEW UPDATE LIGHT VISUAL CCD CURVE C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY ( Analysis III )

Based in 511 observations ccd+visual of comet from MPC database , Comet Obs , LIADA , and observadorescometas , update the new light curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY , continue fast increase of visual magnitude and probable state of outburts , my personal analysis indicate several possible outburts for this comet and lack confirmation , the activity index continue high n=10.3 ( 15/12/14 ) and absolute magnitude m0=+2.5 in r = 1,4 au . if you continue this rapid increase in brightness could have magnitude +4.1 in January -2015 , the Afro production is high rate actually ~ 4.200 cms ( From Cometas Obs data ) , dust rate production is typically of great comets , the comet masses computed for C/2014 Q2 , in comparison of comet 2P/ and 10P/ . The possible calculates active surface areas f > ~ 2.4 for this comet . The pre-perihelion formula general calculated is based in 93 visual's observations , thank all's visuals observers , great job .

Update the light visual and ccd curve of comet C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY ( Analysis II )

Good notices from this comet , continue show high rate of increase of brightness based in my personal calculates and personal analysis from 66 visuals observations and total of 354 ccds and visuals observations from Comet Obs , ICQ , LIADA and observadorescometas group , the absolute magnitude is m0=+2.5 and activity index is high comparate others comets n=10.3 and power law R^(-10.3) , the probability of maximum visual magnitude in T-20 days is m1 ~ +4.1 , the visible naked-eye and easy for binoculars .

DUST RATE PRODUCTION AFRO PARAMETER C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY

Analyzing the graph of this comet, the results of my analysis 3 major explosions throw dust in the cometary nucleus at R = 2.3, 2.1, and 1.58 ua, with increases included in the ranges of 200 < Afro < 400 cms. dust, so it is probable, and nothing ruled that the comet suffer more 'outburst' of this type make up much brightness.

ANALYSIS AND LIGHT VISUAL AND CCD CURVE OF COMET C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY ( Analysis I )

First Observations of the Surfaces of Objects from the Oort Cloud

Astronomers are announcing today the discovery of two unusual objects in comet-like orbits that originate in the Oort cloud but with almost no activity, giving scientists a first look at their surfaces. These results, presented today at the annual meeting of the Division of Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society in Tucson, Arizona, are particularly intriguing because the surfaces are different from what astronomers expected, and they give us clues about the movement of material in the early solar system as the planets were assembled. On August 4, 2013 an apparently asteroidal object, C/2013 P2 Pan-STARRS, was discovered by the Pan STARRS1 survey telescope (PS1) on Haleakala, Maui, Hawaii. What made this object unique is its orbit – that of a comet coming from the Oort cloud, with an orbital period greater than 51 million years, yet no cometary activity was seen. The Oort cloud is a spherical halo of comet nuclei in the outer solar system that extends to about 100,000 times the Earth-sun distance, which is known as 1 astronomical unit, or 1 AU. “Objects on long-period orbits like this usually exhibit cometary tails, for example comet ISON and comet Hale Bopp, so we immediately knew this object was unusual,” explained team leader Dr. Karen Meech (Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa). “I wondered if this could be the first evidence of movement of solar system building blocks from the inner solar system to the Oort cloud.” Follow-up observations in September 2013 with the 8-meter Gemini North telescope on Maunakea, Hawaii, hinted at faint, low-level light reflected off a dusty tail. This tail remained through the object’s closest approach to the sun (2.8 times the Earth-sun distance, within the outer asteroid belt) in February 2014, but the object didn’t get much brighter. When the object was observable again in the spring, the team used the Gemini North telescope to obtain a spectrum of the surface, which showed that it was very red, completely different from comet or asteroid surfaces, and more like the surface of an ultra-red Kuiper belt object. “We had never seen a naked (inactive) Oort cloud comet, but Jan Oort hypothesized their existence back in 1950 when he inferred the existence of what we now call the Oort cloud. Oort suggested that these bodies might have a layer of “volatile frosting” left over from 4.5 billion years of space radiation that disappears after their first pass through the inner solar system. Maybe we are seeing the first evidence of this,” said Dr. Olivier Hainaut of the European Southern Observatory. While the team analyzed their observations of comet C/2013 P2 Pan-STARRS, a second object was discovered. C/2014 S3 Pan-STARRS was discovered through the NASA-sponsored Near Earth Object Survey on the PS1 telescope on September 22, 2014. Like C/2013 P2 Pan-STARRS, it was on the same type of cometary orbit and also showed minimal activity. Team member Dr. Richard Wainscoat (IfA, UHM) commented, “With PS1 now exclusively involved in surveying the solar system for Near Earth Objects (NEOs), we expect to find many fascinating objects. This will help revolutionize our understanding of the early solar system.”

Revision and update ANALYSIS OF COMET C/2014 Q3 BORISOV

Download here 360 kb https://www.dropbox.com/s/8mbe4psopvt4gws/Analysis%20of%20the%20outburts%20of%20the%20comet%20C.pdf?dl=0

ALERT FOR COMET , C/2014 Q2 LOVEJOY NAKED EYE IN JANUARY 2015 ?

Interestingly comet could observe visual magnitude +6.5 in early January 2015, currently ICQ ephemeris put m1 = 12.4 ( 30/10/2014 ), and its visual magnitude observed is m1 = 11.0 ( S.Aguirre Mexico , last visual observation 30/10/2014 ), this -1.4 magnitudes brighter than theoretical, so which could reach maximum brightness for early January 2015 m1 = + 6.5, in the limit of visibility with the naked eye, will be observable in the hemisphere in mid-December 2014. My personal preliminary analysis of the light curve of this comet indicates a high rate of increase in brightness and a high slope in the brightness law (S. Yoshida n = 6.0) this indicates an activity index alo gas and dust nuclear level, in fact the cCD images show strong central condensation typical of bright comets, my personal opinion is that we have a good comet for December and January 2015.

New work of comet C/2014 Q3 BORISOV

Download here , new work of comet C/2014 Q3 BORISOV in format .pdf 345 kb. https://www.dropbox.com/s/bjwkh5m3lyi0u1b/Analysis%20of%20the%20outburts%20of%20the%20comet%20C%20Copy.pdf?dl=0

ANALYSIS OF WATER RATE PRODUCTION OF OUTBURST COMET C/2014 Q3 BORISOV

News results of comet C/2014 Q3 BORISOV , i calculated the gas to dust mass ratio , basing in data log (QH2O) and Afro parameter , applied the formulae below indicate , the comet is relatively gas rich , the last data of Afro parameter indicate poor activity of dust 80-90 cms. , and my last data of log (OH) = 27.00 mol s-1 , 30 kg/sec. , d log(QH2O) =+12 kg/sec Others preliminar results , the flow velocity of water gas is 0.75 km s-1 , and gas temperature ~ 60 K ( Based in model D.Pierce et al. 2010 ) The increased brightness in the visual indicating increased activity in the Swan bands and cometary molecules of carbon , the last visual observation m1=+10.4 , in the outburst the comet is m1=+11.2 More data , the log Q ( C2 ) ~ 10e24.00 mol s-1 , comparison water rate production of comet 1P/HALLEY , the comet C/2014 Q3 BORISOV , at heliocentric distance r=1.5 au , 10e29 mol s-1 ( Halley ) , 10e27.00 mol s-1 ( Borisov ). To mass of comet C/2014 Q3 BORISOV is calculate by relation of Whipple ( 1976 ) , log M (g) =19.39-0.6 * (m1-5log(d) ) , the preliminar results indicate mass 2.5x10e(17) grs. , for comparison Halley's comet is 22.5x10e(19) grs. The slope of the C2 production rate is simply : log C2 = -n log r and similarly for the water rate production . Dust Production J0 = 2.5 n log r +C for the comet C/2014 Q3 BORISOV this equation is defined for J0 = 23.8 log r + C , C is variable , the author is defined by C = 0.46 log r C2 production , log Q (C2+) = -n log r = 23.8 log r and equal for the water production . The table below indicate the correlation between H2O vs C2 in comets and comparison for comet C/2014 Q3 BORISOV the results indicate the poor activity in C2 , H2O principals gases for sublimation from the nucleus

ANALYSIS OF OUTBURST OF COMET C/2014 Q3 BORISOV

Hi all, I just made a small analysis of the visual light curve borisov comet C / 2014 Q3, few visual observations of the comet, but there are two conclusions: 1 Date of outburts, October 19 2 increase or variation in brightness of the 3 visual magnitudes The main hypothesis in this type of glitter explosions as fast, from one day to another, is a sudden outburst of gas and dust from the same core, constant brightness trend these days would indicate that the comet keeps this activity because a significant level blast volatile ices and dust in the same nucleus, green images confirm this fact.

LIGHT CURVE OF COMET C/2013 V5 OUKAIMEDEN

ANALYSIS OF AFRO PARAMETER AND DUST RATE PRODUCTION IN COMET C/2012 S1 ISON

NEW CCD CURVE OF COMET C/2014 E2 JACQUES

CCD LIGHT CURVE REDUCED MAGNITUD vs LOG 10 HELIOCENTRIC DISTANCE AU Based in 854 ccd's observations from MPC DATABASE FROM IAU CCD LIGHT CURVE REDUCED MAGNITUDE vs HELIOCENTRIC DISTANCE

SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC OBSERVATORY/SOLAR WIND ANISOTROPIES OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATELY BRIGHT COMETS: 1999–2014

The author J.P.Navarro Pina investigated the recient observations of SOHO / SWAN of Observations of hydrogen Lyman-α (Ly-α) at 1215.7 Å in comets and their interpretation are important. Atomic hydrogen is the most abundant species in the atmosphere (or coma) of a comet being produced in a photodissociation chain originating with water molecules and including intermediate OH radicals. Water is the most abundant volatile species in a comet’s nucleus, and water sublimation controls the abundance and activity of the coma when comets are within 3 AU from the Sun. Measurements of the abundance and distribution of hydrogen in the coma, when appropriately modeled, can provide a reliable measure of the water production rate and its variation in time in comets. Virtually all compositional information is compared to water, making water the most important species for obtaining accurate production rates. Variations in production rate with time generally, and with heliocentric distance in particular can provide information about the composition and structure of the nucleus. nucleus. Solar Wind Anisotropies (SWAN), the all-sky hydrogen Ly-α camera, has been operating on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft since its launch in 1995. The SWAN instrument was designed to observe the entire sky in H Ly-α in order to obtain a global view of the variable interaction of the solar wind with the neutral interstellar hydrogen streaming through the solar system. From its viewpoint at the L1 Lagrange point between the Earth and Sun it obtains an unparallel view of the Sun, its large extended corona, and the entire sky. For a more detailed description of SWAN, see Bertaux et al.

Update Catalog of Nuclear Magnitudes of Periodic Comets

A catalog of a sample of 225 periodic comets is presented with our ``best estimates'' of their absolute nuclear magnitudes HN = V(1,0,0). It includes either Jupiter family (JF) comets (defined as those with Tisserand constants T > 2 and perihelion distance inside Jupiter q < QJ), Halley-type comets (T < 2) and a few Centaurs comets (T > 2 and perihelion distance outside Jupiter q >QJ). DOWNLOAD HERE ( 560 KB ): https://www.dropbox.com/s/ajsuz5w263oxzr1/new%20Catalog%20of%20Nuclear%20Magnitudes.pdf

LIGHT CCD CURVE OF COMET C/2012 K1 PANSTARRS FROM MPC DATABASE IAU BASED IN 2.836 OBSERVATIONS ...

I just finished my last differential analysis curve ccd light based in more of 2.800 ccd's observations from MPC IAU , the light curve reduced the comet mred-log r sample 3 laws of different brightness due to the change of the strong component of the predominant chemical volatile comet, CH4 -> CO-> H2O in the heliocentric range 2.5 H2O, my analysis does not show favorable data regarding the brightness of the comet and I have doubts that it displays bright, my statistical analysis shows a 80% chance of not exceeding magnitude m1 = +8, and 20% to m1 = +6, ICQ gives m1 = 8.5 theoretical and actual visual observations really it 9.5-10.5

The comet-asteroid P/2013 P5 by HST

P/2013 P5 PANSTARRS was discovered in Aug. 2013, displaying a cometary tail, but with orbital elements typical for a member of the inner asteroid Main Belt. We monitored the object from 2013 Aug. 30 until Oct. 05 using the CFHT, NTT, CA 1.23m, Perkins 1.8m (Lowell), and the 0.6m TRAPPIST telescopes. We measured its nuclear radius to be r < 0.25-0.29km, and its colours g-r = 0.58+/-0.05 and r-i = 0.23+/-0.06, typical for an S-class asteroid. We failed to detect any rotational light curve, with an amplitude < 0.05mag and a double-peaked rotation period < 20h. A detailed Finson-Probstein analysis of deep NTT and CFHT images indicated that the object was active since at least late January 2013 until the time of the latest observations in 2013 September, with at least two peaks of activity around 2013 June 14+/-10d and 2013 July 22+/-3d. The changes of activity level and the activity peaks were extremely sharp and short, shorter than the temporal resolution of our observations (about 1d). The dust distribution was similar during these two events, with dust grains covering at least the 1-1000{\mu}m range. The total mass ejected in grains <1mm was estimated to be 3.0 10$^6$kg and 2.6 10$^7$kg around the two activity peaks. Rotational disruption cannot be ruled out as the cause of the dust ejection. We also propose that the components of a contact binary might gently rub and produce the observed emission. Volatile sublimation might also explain what appears as cometary activity over a period of 8 months. However, while Main Belt comets best explained by ice sublimation are found in the outskirts of the Main Belt, where water ice is believed to be able to survive buried in moderately large objects for the age of the solar system deeply, the presence of volatiles in an object smaller than 300m in radius would be very surprising in the inner asteroid belt. More info : http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014arXiv1401.5740H

ANALYSIS OF THE LIGHT CURVE OF COMET C/2012 X1 LINEAR

ANALYSIS OF LIGHT CURVE OF COMET C/2013 R1 LOVEJOY

Beginning of activity in 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and predictions for 2014–2015

C. Snodgrass1, C. Tubiana1, D. M. Bramich2, K. Meech3,4, H. Boehnhardt1 and L. Barrera5 1 Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Max-Planck-Str. 2, 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany e-mail: snodgrass@mps.mpg.de 2 European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 2, 85748 Garching bei München, Germany 3 Institute for Astronomy, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA 4 University of Hawaii NASA Astrobiology Institute, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA 5 Universidad Metropolitana de Ciencias de la Educación (UMCE), Avda. Jose Pedro Alessandri 774, 832000 Santiago, Chile Received: 5 June 2013 Accepted: 25 July 2013 Abstract Context. Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko was selected in 2003 as the new target of the Rosetta mission. It has since been the subject of a detailed campaign of observations to characterise its nucleus and activity. Aims. We present previously unpublished data taken around the start of activity of the comet in 2007/8, before its last perihelion passage. We constrain the time of the start of activity, and combine this with other data taken throughout the comet’s orbit to make predictions for its likely behaviour during 2014/5 while Rosetta is operating. Methods. A considerable difficulty in observing 67P during the past years has been its position against crowded fields towards the Galactic centre for much of the time. The 2007/8 data presented here were particularly difficult, and the comet will once again be badly placed for Earth-based observations in 2014/5. We make use of the difference image analysis technique, which is commonly used in variable star and exoplanet research, to remove background sources and extract images of the comet. In addition, we reprocess a large quantity of archival images of 67P covering its full orbit, to produce a heliocentric lightcurve. By using consistent reduction, measurement and calibration techniques we generate a remarkably clean lightcurve, which can be used to measure a brightness-distance relationship and to predict the future brightness of the comet. Results. We determine that the comet was active around November 2007, at a pre-perihelion distance from the Sun of 4.3 AU. The comet will reach this distance, and probably become active again, in March 2014. We find that the dust brightness can be well described by Afρ ∝ r-3.2 pre-perihelion and ∝ r-3.4 post-perihelion, and that the comet has a higher dust-to-gas ratio than average, with log (Afρ/Q(H2O)) = − 24.94 ± 0.22 cm s molecule-1 at r < 2 AU. A model fit to the photometric data suggests that only a small fraction (1.4%) of the surface is active. pdf. ABSTRACT PAPER : http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2013/09/aa22020-13/aa22020-13.html

LIGHT CURVE OF DATABASE OF MPC OF COMET C/2013 A1 SIDING-SPRING

CCD CURVE OF COMET C/2012 K1 PANSTARRS

Periodogram of light curve ccd of comet C/2012 K1 PANSTARRS , to investigate the latent periodicities in the light curve ccd i applied the phase dispersion minimization technique of software NASA Exoplanet Archive Periodogram Service and periodogram type Lomb-Scargle . rank 1 period 0.998 power 218.8 rank 2 period 0.499 power 184.2 rank 3 period 0.333 power 180 Database MPC 1711 ccd's observations . Note : he P-values above are computed for 6776 periods sampled, and an exponential power distribution is assumed. A note of caution when interpreting the results from the periodogram: The calculated statistical significance (p-value) of ranked periods may not be reliable. Several factors may invalidate the assumptions applied in estimating the statistical significance.