ANALYSIS OF THE OUTBURTS AND THE LIGHT VISUAL-CCD CURVE OF COMET C/2013 X1 PANSTARRS

My last and personal analysis of the light visual curve ccd+visual , show the data of recent outburts confirmed for multiples observers , the first notice of alert is one message of Stephen McCann UK in the yahoogroups.com comets-ml the 3.87/Jan./2016, the observer alert increment brightness of m1=+8.5 , the last visuals magnitudes from the data indicate range of visual's magnitudes of 9.5 < m1 < 10.5 , the visuals magnitudes : 8.0 , 8.8 , 8.5 and the last recent 7.9 ( Neil Norman , UK ) in the 3 , 4 and 5 January 2016 . The photometric law visual indicate visual magnitude max. of m1~ +5.0 in 20/06/2016 , based in formula m1 = +2.2 + 5 log (d) + 18.2 log (r) , the power law is high n=7.3 , based in R^ (-7.3) .

C/2013 US10 CATALINA FINSON-PROBSTEIN DIAGRAM

The motion of dust particles in a cometary environment is a complex process, and a precise description of the trajectories of grains within the coma requires adavnced hydrodynamic models, taking into account the interaction between gas and dust released from the surface. In the tail, dust and gas are decoupled and the only significant forces affecting the grain trajectories are the solar gravity and radiation pressure. Both forces depend on the square of the heliocentric distance but work in opposite directions. Their sum can be seen as a reduced solar gravity, and the equation of motion is simply m*a=(1-beta)*solar_gravity, where beta is the ratio radiation_pressure/solar_gravity, and is inversely proportional to the size of the grains for particles larger than 1 micron. From this relation, Finson & Probstein (1968) proposed a model which describes the full tail geometry with a grid of synchrones and syndynes; lines representing respectively the locations of particles released at a same time, or with the same beta. This model is simple because it considers only particles released in the orbital plane of the comet, and with zero initial velocity, but it provides a very good approximation of the shape of the tail, and has been used successfully to study many comets. One of the many strengths of this model is the possibility to date events in the tail. For instance, one can understand if regions of higher density are related to outbursts of the nucleus, or are a result of fragmentation of large chunks of material within the trail. It can also be used to disentangle between continuous activity, short outbursts, or impacts, when all these events produce a feature which at first look like a normal cometary tail.