Light visual curve comet C/2019 Y4 ATLAS ( News )

My last analysis of the visual light curve of the comet C / 2019 Y4 ATLAS, confirms the prediction I made a few days ago in the group, about the change in the evolution of the comet's brightness, in the heliocentric range 1.6 < r < 1.4 au, in my Cometary Astrophysics blog, you can see the change in the rate of increase in brightness, which occurs at the distance R = 1.67, on March 21, 2020, as I predicted a few days ago , the graph based only on visual observations, you can see the green line that shows an activity index or rate of increase in brightness of n = 40.0 a law of brightness (R ^ -16), however there is a change in R = 1.67 au, as I first predicted in this group, a few days ago, occurred on the date of March 21, 2020, confirming my forecasts, that it is a possible fragment or twin comet to comet C / 1844 Y1, since that the orbital elements have a fairly exact match, my bet, is that the eater ta C / 2019 Y4 ATLAS, it is a brother or twin comet, from the date of March 21, 2020 at R <1.67 au, the comet suffers a drop in its activity index, probably due to a very high increase in water production rate, being the volatil component that totally dominates the sublimation of ice in the comet, with n = 15.2 and R ^ -6.1, it is almost an almost complete shutdown of volatiles, so the comet, it should not increase its brightness and visual magnitude much further in the future. Visual magnitude max. perihelion m1 = -9.6

Light Visual CCD Curve Analysis of the comet C/2019 Y4 ATLAS

Discovery Date December 28, 2019 Magnitude 19.6 mag Discoverer Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) search program